On 25th March 2025, we had the privilege to attend the 3rd Rosewell lecture of the year by Dr Paul Morland. Dr Morland is an accomplished author and broadcaster who is an expert in demography, specifically around changing trends throughout history and into our future. He has published 4 books on this topic, including Tomorrow’s People, a book that explores demographic changes and their global implications, which he structured the talk around.
In keeping with the title of his talk, Dr Morland opened by examining key historical events and how they can be linked to population shifts. He gave examples of the Louisiana Purchase being motivated by Napoleon’s recognition of the limited number of French settlers compared to the British in North America, and the decline in the Japanese economy occurring at the point when the ageing population kicked in following the previous baby boom. Whilst Dr Morland did acknowledge that demography is frequently not the determining or most important factor, its link to historical events was a fascinating way of interpreting our past, and an intriguing way of considering the motivations and concerns that are behind it.
Then we moved on to present population trends, where Dr Morland introduced the idea of demographic transition. He explained that this is a concept within demography where we now have enough access to adequate education and healthcare that the infant mortality rate is falling rapidly, even in poorer countries, whilst global birth rates fall exponentially. This has a multitude of impacts on both a global and regional scale, from ageing populations that will shift government spending, to increased economic productivity as a new labour force comes in that is better educated than the one it is replacing, whilst flows of migration stem labour shortages.
Finally, Dr Morland briefly debated how a government could balance these demographic changes as we look into the future. He used the theory of the Demographic Trilemma, the idea that no country can have all three of small families, ethnic continuity and economic dynamism, to explain that countries must prioritise what is most important to them when moving forward. Taking the example of Japan, he highlighted their problem of low fertility that has led to an ageing population, high levels of debt and a stagnant economy, but that they have retained the small families and ethnic continuity through their insularity. This was a thought-provoking concept that emphasised Dr Morland’s analytical and evaluative approach to demography and his ability to expertly apply it to a range of different contexts.
Overall, the lecture was invaluable and deeply interesting, and we are incredibly grateful to Dr Morland for sharing his time and insight, and to Lara and Deniz, our Student Heads of Academia, for organising the lecture!
– Eleanor, Y12